Did 2008 mark the beginning of the end of the Iowa caucuses?
The Associated Press has a story out today with a number of Iowa Republican opnion leaders quoted as wondering if 2008 might have killed the Iowa caucuses. They point to the large influx of evangelicals that infiltrated the caucuses - some estimates have it over 60 percent - and whether "moderates" will even bother competing here again.
The Iowa caucuses need moderates in order to survive. If it is just a bunch of candidates vying for the votes of evangelical voters in a rural, white state, then the merit of the caucuses is significantly diminished. You cannot simply beat out other so-called "social conservatives" and expect to claim victory.
This was witnessed throughout this entire cycle. McCain put together a top-notch staff, but did not have the ability to overcome his own shortcomings to wage a successful campaign. The result? Implosion and a second home for him in New Hampshire.
Romney put together an equally impressive ground game, yet also couldn't overcome his shortcomings and ultimately failed on caucus night. Remember, he also won the straw poll - where McCain got absolutely clobbered. Demolished. Yet McCain won the nomination.
That right there says two things. First, if you triumph in the straw poll, but can't win the caucus, why even participate? Second, if you get trounced in the straw poll and come in fourth in the caucuses, yet still win the nomination, why do anything but a token pass-through here, doing just enough to not get last place?
2008 just might have marked the beginning of the end for the Iowa caucuses, but we'll have to wait and see. What a devastating blow this would be for our state. And especially devastating it would be for the state party to not have the straw poll, it's largest fundraiser. Unfortunately, we don't have the Harkin Steak Fry or JJ dinners on our side, so fundraising is at a premium.
So, will moderates shy away from the Evangelical Party of Iowa's caucus system, or will they find a way to energize the non-base of the party to come out on a cold night, and partake in a confusing process? What say our passengers here?
The Iowa caucuses need moderates in order to survive. If it is just a bunch of candidates vying for the votes of evangelical voters in a rural, white state, then the merit of the caucuses is significantly diminished. You cannot simply beat out other so-called "social conservatives" and expect to claim victory.
This was witnessed throughout this entire cycle. McCain put together a top-notch staff, but did not have the ability to overcome his own shortcomings to wage a successful campaign. The result? Implosion and a second home for him in New Hampshire.
Romney put together an equally impressive ground game, yet also couldn't overcome his shortcomings and ultimately failed on caucus night. Remember, he also won the straw poll - where McCain got absolutely clobbered. Demolished. Yet McCain won the nomination.
That right there says two things. First, if you triumph in the straw poll, but can't win the caucus, why even participate? Second, if you get trounced in the straw poll and come in fourth in the caucuses, yet still win the nomination, why do anything but a token pass-through here, doing just enough to not get last place?
2008 just might have marked the beginning of the end for the Iowa caucuses, but we'll have to wait and see. What a devastating blow this would be for our state. And especially devastating it would be for the state party to not have the straw poll, it's largest fundraiser. Unfortunately, we don't have the Harkin Steak Fry or JJ dinners on our side, so fundraising is at a premium.
So, will moderates shy away from the Evangelical Party of Iowa's caucus system, or will they find a way to energize the non-base of the party to come out on a cold night, and partake in a confusing process? What say our passengers here?
The GOP should realize Iowa's brillance. There's a reason John McCain got 4th here.
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Sorry, forgot my name.
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He got fourth, true. But I don't think any in our field could have won this year. It was just that dismal of an outlook for us.
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I think Mitt's best chance is if Palin, Jindal and Huckabee come here and fight for the evangelicals and Romney does the McCain strategy, coming in 4th here, then winning New Hampshire, Florida, Michigan and perform a Super Tuesday sweep. I'm all for Romney avoiding Iowa this time around.
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I'm for that too, because then he would also end up just like John McCain.....getting smoked by Barack Obama. Pick a real candidate.
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Geez, Goodplan...you think your more Christian side would show and you wouldn't be so bitter after your candidate won the caucuses. Penis envy, much?
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There's two sides to the caucus street, and President Obama, who put himself on the map with an Iowa win, will likely have a bit of influence.
Republicans are less obsessed with process and rules than we Dems are. But Keeping Iowa First has been one thing the Iowa Dems and Republicans have been bipartisan about.
Iowa's value really comes down to how much importance the candidates and press decide to give us. Huckabee and Jindal are already swooping in while the votes are literally still being counted--so it looks like we still matter.
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Why am I not shocked to see the mainstream media doing a story pushing for the death of the Iowa Caucuses..
However, what is more shameful in this story is to hear people like Roederer and Rants say that certain people would "damage" the caucuses.
The caucuses come down to one simple thing..ORGANIZATION.
If you dont have your supporters showing up at the caucuses..you have no chance of winning.
Here's the BIG secret behind Huckabee's and even Obama's wins in the Iowa Caucuses..
Yes, they had a message..but more importantly..they both had outstanding GRASSROOTS organization.
That's something quite frankly that Rants and company could learn from.
Romney thought he could buy a caucus win...without the organization behind it..
Thompson could have won the caucuses easily..if he campaigned LIKE he really wanted to win, instead of looking like he'd rather be making more Law and Order episodes.
McCain wanted to ignore Iowa..until his campaign started making its comeback from being written off as dead in Summer 07..so he then started campaigning in Iowa in late fall..
Finishing 4th here in Iowa was huge for McCain..considering at the time..he had even less cash than the people he beat in the caucus. It gave him the boost he needed going into NH.
If a moderate GOP candidate can come in, build a good grassroots organization in the state and can get them mobilized to turn out on caucus night..more power to them.
That's what the caucuses have ALWAYS been..the 1st test of strength for a candidate.
All Roederer and the others are ignorantly demonstrating is how we're alienating more and more people out of the party because they're deemed to be not "pure" enough.
Its that kind of arrogance that will not only lead to more election defeats for us..but also the loss of the Iowa Caucuses 1st in Nation status someday
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Mike - Thanks for the thoughtful comments. You're a welcome passenger here any time!
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